The Big Picture - July 2015

Between Greece, China, slow US growth, and the threat of rising interest rates, it seems that the market is nothing but a daily roller coaster.  Sometimes it makes sense to step back and look at the big picture.  Below is a multi-year chart of the S&P 500.  Since October 2011, the S&P has been in a bullish channel.  At times the bottom of the channel was touched and at times the top of the channel was challenged.  As long as the index remains in the channel, we are still in a bull market. 

Notice that the 200 day moving average has contained all downturns during this period.  Prior to Monday, the moving average had been touched by the index six times and each time the index rallied.  Monday, the index fell to the moving average once again.  Don’t bet against another rally.